The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.
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MLB Picks For Monday, Aug. 15
For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.
Houston Astros At Chicago White Sox
Two teams that matched up in last year’s playoffs have gone in completely opposite directions this season. While these pitchers match up pretty closely, the lineups should strongly favor Houston, assuming they don’t throw their little league lineup out as they’ve been known to do in some of these early-week spots. Already a pretty weak group against right-handed pitching, the White Sox look likely to play without Tim Anderson (definitely out) and Luis Robert, two of their best hitters. Something called Lenyn Sosa has replaced Anderson and posted a wRC+ of 7 with a 30% K rate so far. The fastball-heavy Jose Urquidy should have a solid day here too, as the White Sox have performed poorly against four-seamers (26th in MLB).
While the market has inched a bit toward Houston, I think there’s still plenty of room to play this one to -140.
Current best price: Astros
Seattle Mariners At LA Angels
I’m not sure I’ve faded Shohei Ohtani once this year as I think I’ve been the high man on him for most of the season. However, this bet is mostly against the Angels lineup, which has a brutal matchup with the red-hot Luis Castillo. Only the Marlins have matched the Angels’ futility since Mike Trout got hurt. But they should particularly struggle against Castillo, peaking in terms of fastball velocity and usage. He’s firing his heaters about 60% of the time and perhaps no team has done worse against hard stuff. The Angels rank 29th against four-seamers and 27th against sinkers. Seattle’s offense is peaking in terms of health too, at long last having Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Mitch Haniger all healthy at the top of the lineup.
Unfortunately for those not in the Discord, Seattle has caught quite a bit of steam and I don’t see any further value here around -115. However, one angle to keep an eye on involves the wide spread in bullpen talent. The Mariners have one of the best pens and the Angels might have MLB’s worst after dealing away Raisel Iglesias from an already bad group. If the Angels go up early, look to grab the Mariners live as they should have the ability to come back against the Angels pen if the deficit remains reasonable.
Current best price: Mariners
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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